Against the backdrop of surging global demand for advanced materials and breakthroughs in domestic technologies, the 2025 carbon fiber market is stepping into a new phase characterized by accelerated domestic substitution, reinforced industry barriers by leading enterprises, and broad prospects across multiple high-growth sectors, according to in-depth insights from the China Research and Intelligence Co., Ltd. (ChinaIRN).

Market Scale & Core Growth Drivers: A Dual Boost from Demand and Technology

Carbon fiber, a high-performance material renowned for its lightweight, high strength, corrosion resistance, and excellent fatigue resistance, has become a cornerstone for high-end manufacturing and green development. Its applications span across key fields: in new energy vehicles, it is used for battery casings and body structures to reduce vehicle weight and improve energy efficiency; in wind power, it supports the large-scale of turbine blades to enhance power generation efficiency; in low-altitude economy, it serves as a core lightweight material for aircraft to ensure flight safety and extend endurance; additionally, it is increasingly applied in hydrogen storage tanks and 5G communication antenna radomes.

Globally, the carbon fiber market is expanding steadily. Data shows that the global carbon fiber market size reached approximately $10 billion in 2023, and it is projected to hit $15 billion by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10%. As the world’s largest carbon fiber consumer, China’s market size stood at 15.37 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to exceed 17.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a demand growth rate of over 15%—far outpacing the global average.

Three key factors are driving this boom:

1. 1）New energy vehicle lightweighting: Automakers such as Tesla and NIO have launched large-scale tests of carbon fiber applications in battery enclosures and body structures, driving a rapid rise in penetration rate.

2. 2）Wind turbine blade upsizing: The demand for carbon fiber in the global wind power sector is expected to account for 30% of the total market in 2025, with the carbon fiber consumption of a single blade exceeding 1.2 tons.

3. 3）Rise of low-altitude economy: China’s carbon fiber demand in the low-altitude economy sector reached 60,300 tons in 2024, driven by the surging need for lightweight materials for aircraft.

Competitive Landscape: Domestic Players Break Through While International Giants Dominate High-End Segments

The global carbon fiber market is still dominated by international giants including Japan’s Toray, the U.S.’s Hexcel, and Germany’s SGL, which hold more than 60% of the overall market share, and maintain a near-monopoly in the aerospace-grade carbon fiber segment.

In China, the industry is showing a tiered differentiation pattern:

• · First-tier enterprises such as Zhongfu Shenying, Weihai Guangwei Composites, and Jilin Carbon Valley have completed a full industrial chain layout from precursor to composite materials. For instance, Zhongfu Shenying’s large-tow carbon fiber production capacity has exceeded 20,000 tons per year, with its product costs 30% lower than imported alternatives.

• · Second-tier players like Jiangsu Hengshen and Taitong Copper Materials focus on niche segments. Jiangsu Hengshen’s T800-grade carbon fiber has been mass-supplied to the military industry.

By 2023, China’s operational carbon fiber production capacity reached 140,800 tons, with localization rate rising to 85%. However, the self-sufficiency rate of high-end products remains below 40%. Domestic enterprises are addressing this gap through process innovations (e.g., continuous carbonization technology) and industrial chain integration (extending upstream to precursor production), and the average price of domestic carbon fiber is expected to drop below 120 yuan per kilogram in 2025.

Technological Trends: Cost Reduction and Sustainability Open New Growth Avenues

Technological innovation is reshaping the carbon fiber industry’s development trajectory, with two key trends standing out:

1. 1. Large-tow technology breaks cost bottlenecks: Leading enterprises represented by Zhongfu Shenying have achieved large-scale production of 48K large-tow precursors, cutting carbon fiber production costs to 70% of international levels and spurring the explosion of applications in civil sectors such as wind power and automotive.

2. 2. Recycling technology creates a second growth curve: Pyrolysis recycling technology can increase the recovery rate of waste carbon fiber composites to 90%, with the strength retention rate of recycled fibers reaching over 85%. In 2024, Suzhou Luxi Technology built China’s first kiloton-level carbon fiber recycling production line, with an annual processing capacity of 3,000 tons.

Policy Dividends: National Strategies and Local Support Overlay to Fuel Development

Carbon fiber has been elevated to the status of a “key strategic material” in China’s New Material Industry Development Plan (2024-2030), which clearly mandates the realization of independent controllability of high-end products by 2030. Local governments are also ramping up support; for example, Jiangsu Province offers a 15% R&D subsidy to carbon fiber enterprises.

Emerging application scenarios are also receiving policy tilt: hydrogen storage tanks using carbon fiber have been included in the national subsidy catalog by the National Energy Administration in 2024, with a maximum subsidy of 5,000 yuan per tank; carbon fiber base station antenna radomes have been added to the new infrastructure procurement list, and their market size is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2025.

Future Prospects: Concentration Rises and Emerging Applications Unlock New Potential

Looking ahead, the carbon fiber industry is poised for three major transformations, according to ChinaIRN’s forward-looking views:

1. · Increased market concentration: The market share of the top 5 enterprises (CR5) will exceed 60% in 2025, while small and medium-sized enterprises will survive through differentiated competition in niche segments.

2. · Reconstructed application scenarios: Emerging demands such as robot joint components and space solar power station structural parts will enter an explosive growth period after 2026.

3. · Accelerated global layout: Leading enterprises will build overseas factories to bypass trade barriers, and the export share of domestic carbon fiber is expected to rise to 25% in 2025.

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In addition, specific tracks are showing strong investment potential: upstream precursor (Jilin Carbon Valley accounts for 50% of domestic precursor capacity with a gross profit margin of 45%) and the hydrogen energy track (carbon fiber demand for hydrogen storage tanks will exceed 15,000 tons in 2025, with a CAGR of 35%).

As the carbon fiber industry stands at the intersection of technological breakthroughs and demand explosions, it is set to play an increasingly critical role in the wave of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing, offering enormous development space for enterprises that seize the opportunities.


Source: chinairn.com (https://www.chinairn.com/hyzx/20250317/140517278.shtml)